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Early computer used to predict economy

Friday, May 9, 2008

The computer model that once explained the British economy

phillipsmachine

A sensation when it was unveiled at the London School of Economics in 1949, the Phillips machine used hydraulics to model the workings of the British economy but now looks, at first glance, like the brainchild of a nutty professor.

Speaking of early computers I just happened on what must be the origin of the term “black box”. These stock tickers were literally black boxes.

Black Box Stock Tickers

blackbox1

The Black Box Ticker hit Wall Street around December of 1930.  The Teletype Corporation began developing the technology around 1927, and after the crash of October 1929, stock brokers needed a faster, more reliable machine. By 1934, The New York Quotation Company had switched almost exclusively to the black box ticker.

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Because Paulson said so…

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Paulson says credit crisis may be fading

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday the worst of the credit crisis may have passed but acknowledged that rising gas prices will blunt the effect of 130 million economic stimulus checks. He ruled out a second stimulus package for now.

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Stagflation means fewer Vegas Stag Parties

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Gas or gamble? Economy forces some to choose

The pressures of a weak economy — concerns about job security and rising prices for gas, food, home heating oil and other goods and services — are causing many gamblers to cancel or reduce the number of casino trips. Those who go are gambling less money than in the past: At the traditional gambling Meccas of Atlantic City and Las Vegas, and in other states, casino revenue is down. Employees are being laid off, and there’s concern about future growth.

BloggingStocks asks about another kind of gaming.

Is the video game industry recession-proof?

Another problem to keep in mind: the Associated Press recently reported that teens are having a tough time procuring summer work in light of the struggling economy. That means less spending money for video games.

Yet we get the conflicting question: Will the Fed raise rates? Rapidly rising prices, slowing economy, spells stagflation, not a pleasant position to be in, the 70s all over again.

Filed in Commentary, Econorama, Fed Flap, Perma-Bear, Savestor, Stockblog | | Comments Off

Bernanke Presentation and other Fed Stuff

Monday, May 5, 2008

Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures

Conclusion

The realtor’s mantra is “location, location, location,” and, as I have discussed this evening, local variation in housing and mortgage markets is considerable.  This variation is useful for understanding the sources of the increase in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, and it should be taken into account as servicers and policymakers consider how best to avoid preventable foreclosures.

Most Americans are paying their mortgages on time and are not at risk of foreclosure.  But high rates of delinquency and foreclosure can have substantial spillover effects on the housing market, the financial markets, and the broader economy.  Therefore, doing what we can to avoid preventable foreclosures is not just in the interest of lenders and borrowers.  It’s in everybody’s interest.

The April 2008 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

The Legacy of Bailouts

Republicans Zero In on Fed’s Role in Commodity Inflation

5 Reasons Why the Fed Is Done—or Should Be

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Bernanke and Lincoln

Monday, May 5, 2008
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George Soros as God

Saturday, May 3, 2008

The more George Soros talks, the less people care what he thinks.

soroschart

Filed in Econorama, Great Speculations, Mark Mahorney, Market Mayhem, Quantorama, Stockblog, Truth Trader, market blog, marketblog | | Comments Off

Who Gives a Pork Belly?

Saturday, May 3, 2008

The Slice: Episode 14

Filed in Commentary, Econorama, Market Mayhem, Market Mistress, Quantorama, Truth Trader, Who Gives a Pork Belly? | | Comments Off

Did Bernanke Save us from another Great Depression?

Friday, May 2, 2008

BernankeThe Great Depression Debate

Bernanke and many other economists believe the Fed’s failure to bail out stricken banks between 1929 and 1932 was one of the main reasons the Depression lasted so long. In 1932, Herbert Hoover established the Reconstruction Finance Corp., which lent to banks, railroads, and other troubled businesses but failed to reverse the string of bank failures. By the start of 1933, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt entered the White House, thousands of banks had gone under and many more were facing potential runs on their deposits. F.D.R. declared a bank holiday. When the banks reopened, the Fed had broader power to bail out those that were struggling.

Filed in Econorama, Fed Flap, Great Speculations, Perma-Bear, Truth Trader, economy, fed | | Comments Off

Lipstick Indicator

Friday, May 2, 2008

LipstickIn NYT article Hard Times, but Your Lips Look Great Leonard Lauder, chairman of Estee Lauder Companies, suggests that lipstick sales are a gauge of the economy with sales increasing as times get worse.

Not only is the lipstick theory plausible, “it’s perfectly consistent with all kinds of economic theory,” said Richard DeKaser, the chief economist with National City Corporation, a financial holding company and bank in Cleveland. Lipsticks aren’t inferior goods, economists say, but they could be small indulgences, an inexpensive treat meant to substitute for a bigger-ticket item.

I have a better theory as to why this may be so. Lipstick is a helluva lot easier to hide from their budget conscious and no doubt hypocritical husbands than new clothes. Lord knows no husband is ever going to notice so subtle a change as a new shade of lipstick, unless of course it’s bright blue, provided some shade of blue isn’t the norm for ones wife!

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